Mjallby vs GAIS — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mjallby
35%
Draw
26%
GAIS
39%
Expected goals
1.32–1.35
Mjallby · GAIS
GAIS win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 0–1 (9.2%), 1–2 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Mjallby score at least twice in 38%; GAIS in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
GAIS goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mjallby goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market reference | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby | 2.73 | 2.70 | 2.62 | 2.70 | 2.67 | 2.63 | 2.63 | 2.70 | 2.57 | 2.73 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.45 | 3.21 | 3.64 Pinnacle |
| GAIS | 2.49 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.41 | 2.42 | 2.40 | 2.38 | 2.41 | 2.32 | 2.49 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Mjallby
| 4 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–0 | W |
GAIS
| 6 Apr | H | vs Djurgarden | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Goteborg | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 23 Apr 26 | GAISvsMjallby | 0 – 0 |
Mjallby: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Mjallby (Home · 11 matches) | GAIS (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 27.3% | 45.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| Clean sheet | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.64 | 2.55 |
Home stats use Mjallby's home record; away stats use GAIS's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.