Malmo FF vs Orgryte — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 30.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Malmo FF
70%
pick · result
Draw
17%
Orgryte
13%
Final score
4–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Malmo FF win 69.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Malmo FF win. Expected goals 2.31–0.91 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.0%), 2–1 (10.4%), 1–0 (9.1%). It finished 4–1.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Malmo FF
| 5 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–0 | W |
Orgryte
| 5 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–8 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Malmo FF (Home · 14 matches) | Orgryte (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 78.6% | 64.3% |
| Clean sheet | 21.4% | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.36 |
Home stats use Malmo FF's home record; away stats use Orgryte's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.