Malmo FF vs AIK — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 7 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Malmo FF
57%
top pick
Draw
22%
result
AIK
21%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 21.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Malmo FF win. Expected goals 1.95–1.17 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.0%), 1–1 (10.1%), 2–0 (8.7%). It finished 0–0.
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Malmo FF
| 5 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–0 | W |
AIK
| 5 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Malmo FF (Home · 14 matches) | AIK (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.3% | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 78.6% | 71.4% |
| Clean sheet | 21.4% | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 2.86 |
Home stats use Malmo FF's home record; away stats use AIK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.