Kalmar vs Sirius — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kalmar
32%
Draw
26%
Sirius
41%
Expected goals
1.21–1.55
Kalmar · Sirius
Sirius win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–0 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kalmar score at least twice in 35%; Sirius in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
Sirius goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kalmar goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| Market reference | 32% | 26% | 41% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 26% | 41% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Kalmar | 2.93 |
| Draw | 3.54 |
| Sirius | 2.31 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 04 Nov · 04:44 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Kalmar
| 5 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs AIK | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–1 | W |
Sirius
| 4 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 2 May 26 | SiriusvsKalmar | 3 – 2 |
Kalmar: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Kalmar (Home · 13 matches) | Sirius (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 53.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 61.5% | 69.2% |
| Clean sheet | 15.4% | 38.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.69 | 3.31 |
Home stats use Kalmar's home record; away stats use Sirius's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.