Kalmar vs Hacken — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kalmar
33%
Draw
27%
Hacken
40%
Expected goals
1.31–1.42
Kalmar · Hacken
Hacken win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–2 (9.1%), 0–1 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kalmar score at least twice in 37%; Hacken in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Hacken goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kalmar goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 28% | 37% |
| Market reference | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 27% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar | 2.87 | 2.80 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.85 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.79 | 2.63 | 2.87 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.44 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.44 | 3.12 | 3.58 Pinnacle |
| Hacken | 2.41 | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.37 | 2.37 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 2.32 | 2.41 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Kalmar
| 5 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs AIK | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–1 | W |
Hacken
| 6 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Goteborg | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Vasteras SK | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 1 Aug 26 | HackenvsKalmar | 1 – 1 |
Kalmar: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Kalmar (Home · 11 matches) | Hacken (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 45.5% | 36.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.6% | 45.5% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 54.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Kalmar's home record; away stats use Hacken's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.