Kalmar vs GAIS — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kalmar
38%
Draw
28%
GAIS
34%
Expected goals
1.34–1.35
Kalmar · GAIS
Kalmar win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kalmar score at least twice in 39%; GAIS in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
GAIS goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kalmar goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Market reference | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kalmar
| 5 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs AIK | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–1 | W |
GAIS
| 6 Apr | H | vs Djurgarden | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Goteborg | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kalmar (Home · 11 matches) | GAIS (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 45.5% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.6% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 2.83 |
Home stats use Kalmar's home record; away stats use GAIS's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.