Kalmar vs Djurgarden — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 7 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Kalmar
19%
Draw
22%
Djurgarden
58%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Djurgarden win 58.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Djurgarden win. Expected goals 1.02–1.89 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (10.7%), 1–1 (10.7%), 0–1 (10.1%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Kalmar
| 5 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs AIK | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–1 | W |
Djurgarden
| 6 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kalmar (Home · 13 matches) | Djurgarden (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 30.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 61.5% | 30.8% |
| Clean sheet | 15.4% | 61.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.69 | 2.23 |
Home stats use Kalmar's home record; away stats use Djurgarden's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.