Kalmar vs Brommapojkarna — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kalmar
52%
Draw
25%
Brommapojkarna
23%
Expected goals
1.77–1.18
Kalmar · Brommapojkarna
Kalmar win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 2–1 (10.9%), 1–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Kalmar win is 2–1 (10.9%).
Kalmar score at least twice in 54%; Brommapojkarna in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Brommapojkarna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kalmar goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market reference | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 25% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Kalmar | 1.83 |
| Draw | 3.79 |
| Brommapojkarna | 4.03 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Kalmar
| 5 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs AIK | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–1 | W |
Brommapojkarna
| 6 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Apr | H | vs AIK | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 17 May 26 | BrommapojkarnavsKalmar | 1 – 0 |
Kalmar: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Kalmar (Home · 11 matches) | Brommapojkarna (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 45.5% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.6% | 91.7% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 4.08 |
Home stats use Kalmar's home record; away stats use Brommapojkarna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.