Hammarby vs Sirius — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hammarby
64%
Draw
20%
Sirius
16%
Expected goals
2.10–1.06
Hammarby · Sirius
Hammarby win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.7%), 2–0 (9.9%), 1–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Hammarby score at least twice in 64%; Sirius in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Sirius goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hammarby goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market reference | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 20% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Hammarby
| 4 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 8–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–1 | D |
Sirius
| 4 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hammarby (Home · 12 matches) | Sirius (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 41.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.42 | 3.42 |
Home stats use Hammarby's home record; away stats use Sirius's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.