Hammarby vs Elfsborg — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Hammarby
66%
Draw
21%
Elfsborg
13%
Expected goals
2.13–0.92
Hammarby · Elfsborg
Hammarby win 66% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.8%), 1–1 (10.0%), 2–1 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Hammarby score at least twice in 63%; Elfsborg in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Elfsborg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hammarby goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hammarby | 1.41 |
| Draw | 4.92 |
| Elfsborg | 6.75 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hammarby
| 4 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 8–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–1 | D |
Elfsborg
| 6 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Vasteras SK | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Djurgarden | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 5 Jul 26 | ElfsborgvsHammarby | 1 – 2 |
Hammarby: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Hammarby (Home · 13 matches) | Elfsborg (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 61.5% | 61.5% |
| Clean sheet | 53.8% | 15.4% |
| Avg goals | 3.31 | 2.69 |
Home stats use Hammarby's home record; away stats use Elfsborg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.