Hammarby vs Brommapojkarna — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 27.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hammarby
80%
pick · result
Draw
12%
Brommapojkarna
8%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Hammarby win 79.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hammarby win. Expected goals 3.11–0.74 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 3–0 (10.5%), 2–0 (9.6%), 4–0 (8.6%). It finished 3–1.
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Hammarby
| 4 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 8–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–1 | D |
Brommapojkarna
| 6 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Apr | H | vs AIK | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hammarby (Home · 13 matches) | Brommapojkarna (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 64.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 61.5% | 85.7% |
| Clean sheet | 53.8% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.31 | 3.79 |
Home stats use Hammarby's home record; away stats use Brommapojkarna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.