🇸🇪 Swedish Allsvenskan·Saturday, 29 August 2026·15:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Halmstad | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Kalmar | 1.89 | 1.89 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketHalmstad
24%
Draw
25%
Kalmar
51%
Halmstad 1.12 xGexpected goals1.57 xG Kalmar
Kalmar win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (12.0%).
Halmstad score at least twice in 30%; Kalmar in 48%.
0–1 12.0%1–2 12.0%1–1 11.9%0–2 8.8%0–0 7.1%1–0 5.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Halmstad goals · columns = Kalmar goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Halmstad clean sheet19%
Kalmar clean sheet33%
Halmstad score 2+30%
Kalmar score 2+48%
Halmstad score 3+11%
Model vs market
| Source | Halmstad | Draw | Kalmar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Metis Forecast | 24% | 25% | 51% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Halmstad
| 5 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 0–2 | L |
Kalmar
| 5 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs AIK | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 10 May 26 | KalmarvsHalmstad | 2 – 0 |
Halmstad: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Halmstad (Home) | Kalmar (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 44.4% | 44.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 44.4% |
| Clean sheet | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.56 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Halmstad's home record; away stats use Kalmar's away record this season.