Halmstad vs Kalmar — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 1.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Halmstad
24%
result
Draw
25%
Kalmar
51%
top pick
Final score
1–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Halmstad win 23.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Kalmar win. Expected goals 1.12–1.57 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (12.0%), 1–1 (11.9%). It finished 1–0.
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Halmstad
| 5 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 0–2 | L |
Kalmar
| 5 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs AIK | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Halmstad (Home · 11 matches) | Kalmar (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 45.5% | 36.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.45 | 2.36 |
Home stats use Halmstad's home record; away stats use Kalmar's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.