Halmstad vs AIK — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Halmstad
28%
Draw
24%
AIK
48%
Expected goals
1.16–1.61
Halmstad · AIK
AIK win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 1–2 (9.4%), 0–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely AIK win is 1–2 (9.4%).
Halmstad score at least twice in 33%; AIK in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
AIK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Halmstad goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 25% | 26% | 48% |
| Market reference | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Metis Forecast | 28% | 24% | 48% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halmstad | 3.37 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.94 | 3.40 Bet365 |
| Draw | 3.92 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.68 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.68 | 3.30 | 3.92 Pinnacle |
| AIK | 2.03 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 2.07 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.05 | 2.07 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Halmstad
| 5 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 0–2 | L |
AIK
| 5 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 5 Apr 26 | AIKvsHalmstad | 2 – 1 |
Halmstad: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Halmstad (Home · 11 matches) | AIK (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 45.5% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 36.4% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.45 | 2.83 |
Home stats use Halmstad's home record; away stats use AIK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.