Halmstad vs AIK — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Halmstad
27%
result
Draw
24%
AIK
49%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Halmstad win 27.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AIK win. Expected goals 1.14–1.62 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.3%), 0–1 (9.7%), 1–2 (9.6%). It finished 2–1.
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Halmstad
| 5 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 0–2 | L |
AIK
| 5 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Halmstad (Home · 13 matches) | AIK (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 38.5% | 71.4% |
| Clean sheet | 15.4% | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.38 | 2.86 |
Home stats use Halmstad's home record; away stats use AIK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.