Hacken vs Degerfors — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hacken
69%
Draw
18%
Degerfors
13%
Expected goals
2.23–0.89
Hacken · Degerfors
Hacken win 69% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.4%), 2–1 (10.8%), 1–0 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Hacken score at least twice in 66%; Degerfors in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Degerfors goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hacken goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 63% | 21% | 15% |
| Market reference | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 18% | 13% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hacken | 1.39 |
| Draw | 4.95 |
| Degerfors | 6.97 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hacken
| 6 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Goteborg | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Vasteras SK | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 2–2 | D |
Degerfors
| 4 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs AIK | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 2 May 26 | DegerforsvsHacken | 1 – 1 |
Hacken: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Hacken (Home · 12 matches) | Degerfors (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 41.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.42 |
Home stats use Hacken's home record; away stats use Degerfors's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.