🇸🇪 Swedish Allsvenskan·Sunday, 30 August 2026·14:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Goteborg | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| Draw | 4.39 | 4.39 |
| Orgryte | 5.03 | 5.03 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketGoteborg
61%
Draw
21%
Orgryte
18%
Goteborg 1.85 xGexpected goals1.02 xG Orgryte
Goteborg win 61% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (12.5%).
Goteborg score at least twice in 57%; Orgryte in 27%.
2–1 12.5%1–0 11.8%2–0 10.4%1–1 9.9%3–1 6.6%3–0 5.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Goteborg goals · columns = Orgryte goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Over 4.5 goals16%
Goteborg clean sheet36%
Orgryte clean sheet14%
Goteborg score 2+57%
Orgryte score 2+27%
Goteborg score 3+28%
Model vs market
| Source | Goteborg | Draw | Orgryte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 27% | 28% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 21% | 18% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Goteborg
| 6 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 2–2 | D |
Orgryte
| 5 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–8 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 19 May 26 | OrgrytevsGoteborg | 2 – 3 |
Goteborg: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Goteborg (Home) | Orgryte (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 22.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Clean sheet | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.44 |
Home stats use Goteborg's home record; away stats use Orgryte's away record this season.