Goteborg vs Orgryte — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Goteborg
59%
pick · result
Draw
21%
Orgryte
19%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Goteborg win 59.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Goteborg win. Expected goals 1.86–1.06 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.8%), 1–0 (10.7%), 1–1 (10.1%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Goteborg
| 6 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 2–2 | D |
Orgryte
| 5 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–8 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Goteborg (Home · 11 matches) | Orgryte (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.6% | 27.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.55 | 3.36 |
Home stats use Goteborg's home record; away stats use Orgryte's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.