Goteborg vs Malmo FF — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Goteborg
40%
Draw
27%
Malmo FF
34%
Expected goals
1.37–1.25
Goteborg · Malmo FF
Goteborg win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (9.5%), 2–1 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Goteborg score at least twice in 40%; Malmo FF in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Malmo FF goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Goteborg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market reference | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 27% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Goteborg | 2.40 |
| Draw | 3.51 |
| Malmo FF | 2.82 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Goteborg
| 6 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 2–2 | D |
Malmo FF
| 5 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 12 Jul 26 | Malmo FFvsGoteborg | 4 – 0 |
Goteborg: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Goteborg (Home · 13 matches) | Malmo FF (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| Clean sheet | 23.1% | 53.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.38 | 2.23 |
Home stats use Goteborg's home record; away stats use Malmo FF's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.