Goteborg vs Djurgarden — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Goteborg
28%
Draw
24%
Djurgarden
48%
Expected goals
1.11–1.54
Goteborg · Djurgarden
Djurgarden win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.3%), 0–1 (10.7%), 1–2 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Djurgarden win is 0–1 (10.7%).
Goteborg score at least twice in 31%; Djurgarden in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
Djurgarden goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Goteborg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 28% | 46% |
| Market reference | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Metis Forecast | 28% | 24% | 48% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Goteborg
| 6 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 2–2 | D |
Djurgarden
| 6 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Goteborg (Home · 12 matches) | Djurgarden (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.3% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.42 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Goteborg's home record; away stats use Djurgarden's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.