GAIS vs Goteborg — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
GAIS
42%
Draw
27%
Goteborg
30%
Expected goals
1.44–1.18
GAIS · Goteborg
GAIS win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 1–0 (9.5%), 2–1 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely GAIS win is 1–0 (9.5%).
GAIS score at least twice in 42%; Goteborg in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Goteborg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GAIS goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market reference | 42% | 27% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 27% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| GAIS | 2.26 |
| Draw | 3.41 |
| Goteborg | 3.09 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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GAIS
| 6 Apr | H | vs Djurgarden | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Goteborg | 2–2 | D |
Goteborg
| 6 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 26 | GoteborgvsGAIS | 2 – 2 |
GAIS: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | GAIS (Home · 12 matches) | Goteborg (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 16.7% | 58.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 58.3% | 8.3% |
| Avg goals | 1.75 | 4.00 |
Home stats use GAIS's home record; away stats use Goteborg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.