Elfsborg vs Malmo FF — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Elfsborg
46%
Draw
25%
Malmo FF
28%
Expected goals
1.55–1.26
Elfsborg · Malmo FF
Elfsborg win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (10.7%), 1–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Elfsborg win is 2–1 (10.7%).
Elfsborg score at least twice in 47%; Malmo FF in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Malmo FF goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Elfsborg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market reference | 46% | 25% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 25% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Elfsborg | 2.08 |
| Draw | 3.74 |
| Malmo FF | 3.33 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Elfsborg
| 6 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Vasteras SK | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Djurgarden | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–2 | L |
Malmo FF
| 5 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 26 Jul 26 | Malmo FFvsElfsborg | 1 – 2 |
Elfsborg: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Elfsborg (Home · 12 matches) | Malmo FF (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 45.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.7% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 45.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.36 |
Home stats use Elfsborg's home record; away stats use Malmo FF's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.