Elfsborg vs Kalmar — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 27.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Elfsborg
53%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Kalmar
22%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Elfsborg win 52.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Elfsborg win. Expected goals 1.80–1.08 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (9.5%), 1–0 (9.0%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Elfsborg
| 6 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Vasteras SK | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Djurgarden | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–2 | L |
Kalmar
| 5 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | A | vs AIK | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Elfsborg (Home · 14 matches) | Kalmar (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 35.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 35.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.36 | 2.14 |
Home stats use Elfsborg's home record; away stats use Kalmar's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.