Djurgarden vs Orgryte — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Djurgarden
85%
Draw
10%
Orgryte
6%
Expected goals
3.02–0.67
Djurgarden · Orgryte
Djurgarden win 85% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.7%), 3–0 (11.6%), 4–0 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Djurgarden score at least twice in 81%; Orgryte in 15%.
Scoreline distribution
Orgryte goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Djurgarden goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| Market reference | 85% | 10% | 6% |
| Metis Forecast | 85% | 10% | 6% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Djurgarden | 1.14 |
| Draw | 8.79 |
| Orgryte | 14.16 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Djurgarden
| 6 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
Orgryte
| 5 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–8 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 20 Jul 26 | OrgrytevsDjurgarden | 0 – 0 |
Djurgarden: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Djurgarden (Home · 12 matches) | Orgryte (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 58.3% |
| Clean sheet | 41.7% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Djurgarden's home record; away stats use Orgryte's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.