Djurgarden vs Mjallby — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Djurgarden
65%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Mjallby
16%
Final score
4–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Djurgarden win 64.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Djurgarden win. Expected goals 1.97–1.07 against 4–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (11.4%), 2–0 (10.2%). It finished 4–0.
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Djurgarden
| 6 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
Mjallby
| 4 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Djurgarden (Home · 12 matches) | Mjallby (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 41.7% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.27 |
Home stats use Djurgarden's home record; away stats use Mjallby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.