🇸🇪 Swedish Allsvenskan·Monday, 31 August 2026·17:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Djurgarden | 1.52 | 1.52 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.70 |
| Mjallby | 5.17 | 5.17 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketDjurgarden
63%
Draw
19%
Mjallby
17%
Djurgarden 1.88 xGexpected goals1.05 xG Mjallby
Djurgarden win 63% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (14.0%).
Djurgarden score at least twice in 59%; Mjallby in 28%.
2–1 14.0%1–0 12.2%2–0 10.3%1–1 9.1%3–1 7.0%3–0 5.1%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 14.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Djurgarden goals · columns = Mjallby goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score57%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Djurgarden clean sheet35%
Mjallby clean sheet13%
Djurgarden score 2+59%
Mjallby score 2+28%
Djurgarden score 3+28%
Model vs market
| Source | Djurgarden | Draw | Mjallby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 63% | 19% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 19% | 17% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Djurgarden
| 6 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
Mjallby
| 4 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Djurgarden (Home) | Mjallby (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 55.6% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 77.8% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.89 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Djurgarden's home record; away stats use Mjallby's away record this season.