Djurgarden vs Elfsborg — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Djurgarden
64%
top pick
Draw
20%
Elfsborg
16%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Elfsborg win 16.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Djurgarden win. Expected goals 2.17–0.98 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (10.1%), 1–1 (9.6%), 2–1 (9.5%). It finished 1–2.
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Djurgarden
| 6 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
Elfsborg
| 6 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Vasteras SK | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Djurgarden | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Djurgarden (Home · 14 matches) | Elfsborg (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 78.6% | 61.5% |
| Clean sheet | 35.7% | 15.4% |
| Avg goals | 3.64 | 2.69 |
Home stats use Djurgarden's home record; away stats use Elfsborg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.