Djurgarden vs Elfsborg — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Djurgarden
63%
Draw
21%
Elfsborg
16%
Expected goals
2.17–0.98
Djurgarden · Elfsborg
Djurgarden win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.0%), 1–1 (9.8%), 2–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Djurgarden score at least twice in 63%; Elfsborg in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Elfsborg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Djurgarden goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 67% | 20% | 12% |
| Market reference | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 21% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgarden | 1.54 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 1.51 | 1.57 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.51 | 1.57 Betano |
| Draw | 4.51 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.05 | 4.33 | 4.10 | 4.25 | 3.85 | 4.51 Pinnacle |
| Elfsborg | 5.72 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.82 | 5.40 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.80 | 4.84 | 6.00 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Djurgarden
| 6 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Elfsborg | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
Elfsborg
| 6 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Vasteras SK | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Djurgarden | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 22 Apr 26 | ElfsborgvsDjurgarden | 2 – 1 |
Djurgarden: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Djurgarden (Home · 12 matches) | Elfsborg (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 41.7% | 18.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 2.45 |
Home stats use Djurgarden's home record; away stats use Elfsborg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.