Degerfors vs Vasteras SK — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Degerfors
40%
Draw
28%
Vasteras SK
33%
Expected goals
1.29–1.25
Degerfors · Vasteras SK
Degerfors win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.3%), 1–0 (10.8%), 2–1 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Degerfors score at least twice in 38%; Vasteras SK in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Vasteras SK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Degerfors goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market reference | 40% | 28% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 28% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Degerfors
| 4 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs AIK | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
Vasteras SK
| 5 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Degerfors (Home · 12 matches) | Vasteras SK (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 41.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.42 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Degerfors's home record; away stats use Vasteras SK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.