Degerfors vs Hammarby — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Degerfors
10%
Draw
16%
Hammarby
73%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Hammarby win 73.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hammarby win. Expected goals 0.81–2.17 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–2 (12.9%), 0–1 (12.5%), 1–2 (12.3%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Degerfors
| 4 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs AIK | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
Hammarby
| 4 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 8–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Degerfors (Home · 13 matches) | Hammarby (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 53.8% | 35.7% |
| Clean sheet | 15.4% | 35.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.46 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Degerfors's home record; away stats use Hammarby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.