Degerfors vs Hammarby — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Degerfors
11%
Draw
17%
Hammarby
73%
Expected goals
0.82–2.16
Degerfors · Hammarby
Hammarby win 73% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12.8%), 0–1 (12.3%), 1–2 (12.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Degerfors score at least twice in 19%; Hammarby in 66%.
Scoreline distribution
Hammarby goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Degerfors goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Market reference | 11% | 17% | 73% |
| Metis Forecast | 11% | 17% | 73% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors | 8.43 | 7.50 | 8.00 | 9.30 | 7.80 | 9.50 | 8.50 | 9.40 | 7.05 | 9.50 Betfair SB |
| Draw | 5.55 | 5.50 | 4.80 | 5.25 | 5.10 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 4.84 | 5.55 Pinnacle |
| Hammarby | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.34 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Degerfors
| 4 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs AIK | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
Hammarby
| 4 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 8–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 19 Jul 26 | HammarbyvsDegerfors | 4 – 0 |
Degerfors: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Degerfors (Home · 11 matches) | Hammarby (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 36.4% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 27.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.36 | 2.64 |
Home stats use Degerfors's home record; away stats use Hammarby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.