AIK vs Vasteras SK — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
AIK
47%
top pick
Draw
28%
Vasteras SK
25%
result
Final score
1–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Vasteras SK win 25.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AIK win. Expected goals 1.71–1.21 against 1–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–0 (8.0%). It finished 1–4.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
AIK
| 5 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
Vasteras SK
| 5 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AIK (Home · 13 matches) | Vasteras SK (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 61.5% | 46.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 69.2% | 76.9% |
| Clean sheet | 15.4% | 23.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.85 | 3.31 |
Home stats use AIK's home record; away stats use Vasteras SK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.