AIK vs Mjallby — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
AIK
42%
top pick
Draw
27%
result
Mjallby
31%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AIK win. Expected goals 1.58–1.36 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.6%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–0 (7.6%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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AIK
| 5 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
Mjallby
| 4 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AIK (Home · 13 matches) | Mjallby (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 61.5% | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 69.2% | 53.8% |
| Clean sheet | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.85 | 3.08 |
Home stats use AIK's home record; away stats use Mjallby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.