🇸🇪 Swedish Allsvenskan·Sunday, 30 August 2026·12:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| AIK | 4.79 | 4.79 |
| Draw | 4.34 | 4.34 |
| Hammarby | 1.63 | 1.63 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAIK
19%
Draw
21%
Hammarby
59%
AIK 1.06 xGexpected goals1.71 xG Hammarby
Hammarby win 59% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (14.0%).
AIK score at least twice in 28%; Hammarby in 53%.
1–2 14.0%0–1 13.4%1–1 10.2%0–2 9.9%1–3 6.1%0–0 5.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 13.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 10.2 | 14.0 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = AIK goals · columns = Hammarby goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Over 4.5 goals15%
AIK clean sheet16%
Hammarby clean sheet35%
AIK score 2+28%
Hammarby score 2+53%
AIK score 3+10%
Model vs market
| Source | AIK | Draw | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 28% | 34% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 19% | 21% | 59% |
| Metis Forecast | 19% | 21% | 59% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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AIK
| 5 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
Hammarby
| 4 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 8–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 24 May 26 | HammarbyvsAIK | 1 – 2 |
AIK: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | AIK (Home) | Hammarby (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 28.6% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 37.5% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 2.62 |
Home stats use AIK's home record; away stats use Hammarby's away record this season.