AIK vs Hammarby — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
AIK
14%
result
Draw
19%
Hammarby
67%
top pick
Final score
3–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an AIK win 14.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hammarby win. Expected goals 0.97–1.91 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (14.8%), 0–1 (13.7%), 0–2 (11.2%). It finished 3–2.
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AIK
| 5 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
Hammarby
| 4 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 8–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AIK (Home · 10 matches) | Hammarby (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 27.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.10 | 2.64 |
Home stats use AIK's home record; away stats use Hammarby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.