Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Trabzonspor
33%
result
Draw
25%
Galatasaray
42%
top pick
Final score
4–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Trabzonspor win 33.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Galatasaray win. Expected goals 1.46–1.74 against 4–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–1 (8.3%), 1–2 (8.2%). It finished 4–0.
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Trabzonspor
| 15 Aug | A | vs Kasimpasa | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Basaksehir | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Amedspor | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Genclerbirligi | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Konyaspor | 0–1 | L |
Galatasaray
| 14 Aug | H | vs Corum | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Erzurumspor | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Basaksehir | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Kocaelispor | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Trabzonspor (Home · 5 matches) | Galatasaray (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.60 |
Home stats use Trabzonspor's home record; away stats use Galatasaray's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.