Samsunspor vs Konyaspor — Süper Lig forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Samsunspor
42%
Draw
28%
Konyaspor
30%
Expected goals
1.46–1.23
Samsunspor · Konyaspor
Samsunspor win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Samsunspor win is 2–1 (9.3%).
Samsunspor score at least twice in 43%; Konyaspor in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Konyaspor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Samsunspor goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market reference | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 2.28 |
| Draw | 3.36 |
| Konyaspor | 3.21 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Samsunspor
| 17 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Rizespor | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Corum | 1–5 | L |
Konyaspor
| 15 Aug | H | vs Rizespor | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Fenerbahce | 2–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Kocaelispor | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Erzurumspor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Trabzonspor | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Samsunspor (Home · 5 matches) | Konyaspor (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Samsunspor's home record; away stats use Konyaspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.