🇹🇷 Süper Lig·Sunday, 30 August 2026·18:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 5.07 | 5.07 |
| Draw | 4.19 | 4.19 |
| Fenerbahce | 1.61 | 1.61 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSamsunspor
18%
Draw
22%
Fenerbahce
60%
Samsunspor 0.95 xGexpected goals1.86 xG Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce win 60% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (11.2%).
Samsunspor score at least twice in 25%; Fenerbahce in 56%.
0–1 11.2%1–2 10.8%0–2 10.7%1–1 10.6%1–3 6.3%0–3 6.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Samsunspor goals · columns = Fenerbahce goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score53%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals15%
Samsunspor clean sheet15%
Fenerbahce clean sheet39%
Samsunspor score 2+25%
Fenerbahce score 2+56%
Samsunspor score 3+7%
Model vs market
| Source | Samsunspor | Draw | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 14% | 25% | 61% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| Metis Forecast | 18% | 22% | 60% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Samsunspor
| 9 Aug | H | vs Genclerbirligi | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Kocaelispor | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Trabzonspor | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Antalyaspor | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Sept | H | vs Kasimpasa | 0–0 | D |
Fenerbahce
| 16 Aug | A | vs Goztepe | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Kocaelispor | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Trabzonspor | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Sept | H | vs Alanyaspor | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 8 Mar 26 | FenerbahcevsSamsunspor | 3 – 2 |
| 5 Oct 25 | SamsunsporvsFenerbahce | 0 – 0 |
Samsunspor: 0W 1D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Samsunspor (Home) | Fenerbahce (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.9% | 64.7% |
| Clean sheet | 35.3% | 41.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.29 | 3.24 |
Home stats use Samsunspor's home record; away stats use Fenerbahce's away record this season.