Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Samsunspor
17%
Draw
23%
Fenerbahce
60%
pick · result
Final score
0–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Fenerbahce win 60.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Fenerbahce win. Expected goals 0.98–1.86 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (11.7%), 0–1 (11.5%), 1–1 (10.8%). It finished 0–2.
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Samsunspor
| 17 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Rizespor | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Corum | 1–5 | L |
Fenerbahce
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Konyaspor | 4–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Samsunspor | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Besiktas | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Gaziantep | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Samsunspor (Home · 3 matches) | Fenerbahce (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 4.67 | 1.67 |
Home stats use Samsunspor's home record; away stats use Fenerbahce's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.