Rizespor vs Trabzonspor — Süper Lig forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Rizespor
27%
Draw
24%
Trabzonspor
49%
Expected goals
1.21–1.70
Rizespor · Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 1–2 (9.8%), 0–1 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Trabzonspor win is 1–2 (9.7%).
Rizespor score at least twice in 34%; Trabzonspor in 51%.
Scoreline distribution
Trabzonspor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Rizespor goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Market reference | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| Metis Forecast | 27% | 24% | 49% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Rizespor | 3.44 |
| Draw | 3.97 |
| Trabzonspor | 1.96 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Rizespor
| 15 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Samsunspor | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Gaziantep | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Alanyaspor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Eyupspor | 2–0 | W |
Trabzonspor
| 15 Aug | A | vs Kasimpasa | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Basaksehir | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Amedspor | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Genclerbirligi | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Konyaspor | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rizespor (Home · 3 matches) | Trabzonspor (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Rizespor's home record; away stats use Trabzonspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.