Konyaspor vs Genclerbirligi — Süper Lig forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Konyaspor
51%
Draw
27%
Genclerbirligi
22%
Expected goals
1.63–0.96
Konyaspor · Genclerbirligi
Konyaspor win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (10.6%), 2–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Konyaspor win is 1–0 (10.6%).
Konyaspor score at least twice in 48%; Genclerbirligi in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Genclerbirligi goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Konyaspor goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
| Market reference | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Konyaspor | 1.89 |
| Draw | 3.48 |
| Genclerbirligi | 4.22 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Konyaspor
| 15 Aug | H | vs Rizespor | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Fenerbahce | 2–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Kocaelispor | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Erzurumspor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Trabzonspor | 1–0 | W |
Genclerbirligi
| 15 Aug | H | vs Fenerbahce | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Goztepe | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Erzurumspor | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Trabzonspor | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Kasimpasa | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Konyaspor (Home · 4 matches) | Genclerbirligi (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 1.25 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Konyaspor's home record; away stats use Genclerbirligi's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.