Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 1.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Kocaelispor
42%
pick · result
Draw
31%
Samsunspor
26%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Kocaelispor win 42.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Kocaelispor win. Expected goals 1.43–1.11 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.0%), 1–0 (9.9%), 0–0 (9.7%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Kocaelispor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Basaksehir | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Amedspor | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Samsunspor | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Galatasaray | 0–1 | L |
Samsunspor
| 17 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Rizespor | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Corum | 1–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kocaelispor (Home · 5 matches) | Samsunspor (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Kocaelispor's home record; away stats use Samsunspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.