Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Kocaelispor
42%
pick · result
Draw
31%
Gaziantep
27%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Kocaelispor win 42.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Kocaelispor win. Expected goals 1.36–1.06 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.8%), 1–0 (10.9%), 0–0 (10.4%). It finished 2–0.
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Kocaelispor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Basaksehir | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Amedspor | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Samsunspor | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Galatasaray | 0–1 | L |
Gaziantep
| 15 Aug | H | vs Alanyaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eyupspor | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Rizespor | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Goztepe | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kocaelispor (Home · 5 matches) | Gaziantep (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Kocaelispor's home record; away stats use Gaziantep's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.