Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026

Süper Lig·Sunday, 13 September 2026

Metis pre-match forecast

Market-anchored distribution

Frozen as published · 29.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.

Genclerbirligi

41%

top pick

Draw

30%

Kasimpasa

29%

result

Final score

1–2

Top pick missed

Metis gave a Kasimpasa win 29.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Genclerbirligi win. Expected goals 1.46–1.25 against 1–2 actual.

Forecast against the result

Over 2.5 goals51%3 scored
Both teams score57%yes
Genclerbirligi clean sheet29%no
Kasimpasa clean sheet23%no
Genclerbirligi score 2+43%no
Kasimpasa score 2+35%yes

How this forecast scored

Ranked probability score0.3361
1X2 Brier score0.7620
Probability on the result29.0%

Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.

Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.2%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–0 (8.8%). It finished 1–2.

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Recent form

Genclerbirligi

15 AugHvs Fenerbahce2–1W
23 AugAvs Goztepe1–0W
28 AugHvs Erzurumspor1–1D
6 SeptAvs Trabzonspor0–5L
13 SeptHvs Kasimpasa1–2L

Kasimpasa

15 AugHvs Trabzonspor1–1D
22 AugAvs Corum1–0W
30 AugAvs Basaksehir1–1D
6 SeptHvs Amedspor2–2D
13 SeptAvs Genclerbirligi2–1W

Head to head

No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.

Model context

StatGenclerbirligi
(Home · 6 matches)
Kasimpasa
(Away · 5 matches)
BTTS rate66.7%60.0%
Over 2.5 rate66.7%40.0%
Clean sheet16.7%40.0%
Avg goals3.002.20

Home stats use Genclerbirligi's home record; away stats use Kasimpasa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.