Gaziantep vs Rizespor — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gaziantep
32%
Draw
27%
Rizespor
41%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Rizespor win 41.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rizespor win. Expected goals 1.25–1.39 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 0–1 (10.0%), 1–2 (9.8%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Gaziantep
| 15 Aug | H | vs Alanyaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eyupspor | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Rizespor | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Goztepe | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–0 | D |
Rizespor
| 15 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Samsunspor | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Gaziantep | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Alanyaspor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Eyupspor | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gaziantep (Home · 3 matches) | Rizespor (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.67 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Gaziantep's home record; away stats use Rizespor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.