🇹🇷 Süper Lig·Saturday, 29 August 2026·18:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| Draw | 3.57 | 3.57 |
| Rizespor | 2.35 | 2.35 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketGaziantep
32%
Draw
27%
Rizespor
41%
Gaziantep 1.27 xGexpected goals1.40 xG Rizespor
Rizespor win 41% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.8%).
Gaziantep score at least twice in 36%; Rizespor in 42%.
1–1 12.8%0–1 9.8%1–2 9.8%0–0 7.7%1–0 7.1%0–2 7.0%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Gaziantep goals · columns = Rizespor goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Gaziantep clean sheet24%
Rizespor clean sheet29%
Gaziantep score 2+36%
Rizespor score 2+42%
Gaziantep score 3+14%
Model vs market
| Source | Gaziantep | Draw | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 27% | 41% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Gaziantep
| 8 Aug | H | vs Galatasaray | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Genclerbirligi | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Kasimpasa | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Kocaelispor | 2–0 | W |
Rizespor
| 10 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Alanyaspor | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Galatasaray | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Kocaelispor | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Gaziantep (Home) | Rizespor (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 58.8% |
| Clean sheet | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Gaziantep's home record; away stats use Rizespor's away record this season.