Gaziantep vs Kasimpasa — Süper Lig forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Gaziantep
37%
Draw
28%
Kasimpasa
34%
Expected goals
1.31–1.28
Gaziantep · Kasimpasa
Gaziantep win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (9.3%), 2–1 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Gaziantep score at least twice in 38%; Kasimpasa in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Kasimpasa goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gaziantep goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market reference | 37% | 28% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 28% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Gaziantep | 2.56 |
| Draw | 3.38 |
| Kasimpasa | 2.78 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Gaziantep
| 15 Aug | H | vs Alanyaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eyupspor | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Rizespor | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Goztepe | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–0 | D |
Kasimpasa
| 15 Aug | H | vs Trabzonspor | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Corum | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Basaksehir | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Amedspor | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gaziantep (Home · 5 matches) | Kasimpasa (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Gaziantep's home record; away stats use Kasimpasa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.