Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gaziantep
15%
Draw
21%
result
Fenerbahce
63%
top pick
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 21.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Fenerbahce win. Expected goals 0.92–2.14 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–2 (10.5%), 1–1 (10.0%), 1–2 (9.3%). It finished 0–0.
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Gaziantep
| 15 Aug | H | vs Alanyaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eyupspor | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Rizespor | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Goztepe | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–0 | D |
Fenerbahce
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Konyaspor | 4–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Samsunspor | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Besiktas | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Gaziantep | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gaziantep (Home · 5 matches) | Fenerbahce (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Gaziantep's home record; away stats use Fenerbahce's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.