Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 32.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Galatasaray
83%
pick · result
Draw
12%
Kocaelispor
5%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Galatasaray win 82.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Galatasaray win. Expected goals 2.94–0.66 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.9%), 3–0 (11.6%), 4–0 (8.5%). It finished 1–0.
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Galatasaray
| 14 Aug | H | vs Corum | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Erzurumspor | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Basaksehir | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Kocaelispor | 1–0 | W |
Kocaelispor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Basaksehir | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Amedspor | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Samsunspor | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Galatasaray | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Galatasaray (Home · 5 matches) | Kocaelispor (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Galatasaray's home record; away stats use Kocaelispor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.