Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce — Süper Lig forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Galatasaray
43%
Draw
25%
Fenerbahce
32%
Expected goals
1.69–1.38
Galatasaray · Fenerbahce
Galatasaray win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–2 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Galatasaray win is 2–1 (8.6%).
Galatasaray score at least twice in 50%; Fenerbahce in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Fenerbahce goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Galatasaray goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Market reference | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 25% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 2.21 |
| Draw | 3.76 |
| Fenerbahce | 3.00 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Galatasaray
| 14 Aug | H | vs Corum | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Erzurumspor | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Basaksehir | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Kocaelispor | 1–0 | W |
Fenerbahce
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Konyaspor | 4–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Samsunspor | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Besiktas | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Gaziantep | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Galatasaray (Home · 4 matches) | Fenerbahce (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Galatasaray's home record; away stats use Fenerbahce's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.