Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor — Süper Lig forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Fenerbahce
84%
Draw
11%
Eyupspor
5%
Expected goals
3.15–0.62
Fenerbahce · Eyupspor
Fenerbahce win 84% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 3–0 (11.9%), 2–0 (11.0%), 4–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 43% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Fenerbahce score at least twice in 81%; Eyupspor in 13%.
Scoreline distribution
Eyupspor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Fenerbahce goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| Market reference | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| Metis Forecast | 84% | 11% | 5% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.20 Betano |
| Draw | 7.89 | 7.00 | 7.50 | 9.10 | 7.70 | 7.50 | 7.00 | 7.60 | 5.90 | 9.10 1xBet |
| Eyupspor | 15.10 | 15.00 | 13.00 | 17.00 | 15.50 | 15.00 | 13.00 | 14.50 | 9.64 | 17.00 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Fenerbahce
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Konyaspor | 4–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Samsunspor | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Besiktas | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Gaziantep | 0–0 | D |
Eyupspor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Besiktas | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Gaziantep | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Alanyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Corum | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Rizespor | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fenerbahce (Home · 3 matches) | Eyupspor (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.67 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Fenerbahce's home record; away stats use Eyupspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.