Fenerbahce vs Besiktas — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Fenerbahce
45%
top pick
Draw
27%
Besiktas
28%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Besiktas win 28.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Fenerbahce win. Expected goals 1.74–1.28 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.7%), 2–1 (8.3%), 1–2 (7.4%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Fenerbahce
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Konyaspor | 4–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Samsunspor | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Besiktas | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Gaziantep | 0–0 | D |
Besiktas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Eyupspor | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Alanyaspor | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Corum | 6–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fenerbahce | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Erzurumspor | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fenerbahce (Home · 5 matches) | Besiktas (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.60 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Fenerbahce's home record; away stats use Besiktas's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.