Eyupspor vs Kocaelispor — Süper Lig forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Eyupspor
25%
Draw
29%
Kocaelispor
46%
Expected goals
1.05–1.47
Eyupspor · Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (11.1%), 1–2 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Kocaelispor win is 0–1 (11.1%).
Eyupspor score at least twice in 28%; Kocaelispor in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Kocaelispor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 13.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Eyupspor goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Market reference | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 29% | 46% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Eyupspor | 3.78 |
| Draw | 3.28 |
| Kocaelispor | 2.09 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Eyupspor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Besiktas | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Gaziantep | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Alanyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Corum | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Rizespor | 0–2 | L |
Kocaelispor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Basaksehir | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Amedspor | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Samsunspor | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Galatasaray | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Eyupspor (Home · 5 matches) | Kocaelispor (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Eyupspor's home record; away stats use Kocaelispor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.