Eyupspor vs Kasimpasa — Süper Lig forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Eyupspor
15%
Draw
23%
Kasimpasa
62%
Expected goals
0.89–1.76
Eyupspor · Kasimpasa
Kasimpasa win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13.9%), 1–2 (12.4%), 0–2 (11.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Eyupspor score at least twice in 22%; Kasimpasa in 54%.
Scoreline distribution
Kasimpasa goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 13.9 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Eyupspor goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market reference | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Metis Forecast | 15% | 23% | 62% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Eyupspor | 5.86 |
| Draw | 4.04 |
| Kasimpasa | 1.57 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Eyupspor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Besiktas | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Gaziantep | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Alanyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Corum | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Rizespor | 0–2 | L |
Kasimpasa
| 15 Aug | H | vs Trabzonspor | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Corum | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Basaksehir | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Amedspor | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Eyupspor (Home · 4 matches) | Kasimpasa (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Eyupspor's home record; away stats use Kasimpasa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.