Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor — Süper Lig forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Alanyaspor
48%
Draw
29%
Kocaelispor
22%
Expected goals
1.44–0.94
Alanyaspor · Kocaelispor
Alanyaspor win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (12.9%), 0–0 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Alanyaspor win is 1–0 (12.9%).
Alanyaspor score at least twice in 42%; Kocaelispor in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Kocaelispor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Alanyaspor goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 29% | 27% |
| Market reference | 48% | 29% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 29% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 2.01 |
| Draw | 3.26 |
| Kocaelispor | 4.26 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.35–1.02 → 1.44–0.94
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Alanyaspor
| 15 Aug | A | vs Gaziantep | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Besiktas | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Eyupspor | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Rizespor | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Goztepe | 2–2 | D |
Kocaelispor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Basaksehir | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Amedspor | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Samsunspor | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Galatasaray | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Alanyaspor (Home · 3 matches) | Kocaelispor (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.67 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Alanyaspor's home record; away stats use Kocaelispor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.