Virtus Entella vs Modena — Serie B forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Virtus Entella
31%
Draw
30%
Modena
40%
Expected goals
1.17–1.37
Virtus Entella · Modena
Modena win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 0–1 (9.5%), 0–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Virtus Entella score at least twice in 33%; Modena in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Modena goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 14.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Virtus Entella goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 28% | 41% |
| Market reference | 31% | 30% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 30% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Virtus Entella | 3.11 |
| Draw | 3.22 |
| Modena | 2.41 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Virtus Entella
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Cesena | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Vicenza | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Pisa | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
Modena
| 22 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Cremonese | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Virtus Entella (Home · 5 matches) | Modena (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Virtus Entella's home record; away stats use Modena's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.