Virtus Entella vs Mantova — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Virtus Entella
42%
Draw
30%
Mantova
28%
Expected goals
1.36–1.09
Virtus Entella · Mantova
Virtus Entella win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 1–0 (11.1%), 0–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Virtus Entella win is 1–0 (11.1%).
Virtus Entella score at least twice in 40%; Mantova in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Mantova goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 14.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Virtus Entella goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 38% | 29% | 32% |
| Market reference | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Virtus Entella | 2.26 |
| Draw | 3.17 |
| Mantova | 3.42 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Virtus Entella
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Cesena | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Vicenza | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Pisa | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
Mantova
| 22 Aug | A | vs Carrarese | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Empoli | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Virtus Entella (Home · 3 matches) | Mantova (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Virtus Entella's home record; away stats use Mantova's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.