🇮🇹 Serie B·Saturday, 29 August 2026·17:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella | 2.07 | 2.07 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Cesena | 4.11 | 4.11 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketVirtus Entella
47%
Draw
30%
Cesena
23%
Virtus Entella 1.47 xGexpected goals0.99 xG Cesena
Virtus Entella win 47% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.1%).
Virtus Entella score at least twice in 43%; Cesena in 26%.
1–1 14.1%1–0 11.5%0–0 9.9%2–1 9.2%2–0 9.1%0–1 7.0%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 14.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Virtus Entella goals · columns = Cesena goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score50%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Virtus Entella clean sheet37%
Cesena clean sheet23%
Virtus Entella score 2+43%
Cesena score 2+26%
Virtus Entella score 3+18%
Model vs market
| Source | Virtus Entella | Draw | Cesena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 28% | 25% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 30% | 23% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Virtus Entella
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Mantova | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Padova | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sept | A | vs Avellino | 0–2 | L |
Cesena
| 22 Aug | A | vs Pescara | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sampdoria | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sept | H | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 10 Feb 26 | Virtus EntellavsCesena | 3 – 1 |
| 30 Aug 25 | CesenavsVirtus Entella | 1 – 1 |
Virtus Entella: 1W 1D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Virtus Entella (Home) | Cesena (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 68.4% | 52.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.1% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 26.3% | 15.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.37 | 2.32 |
Home stats use Virtus Entella's home record; away stats use Cesena's away record this season.