Sudtirol vs Sampdoria — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sudtirol
32%
Draw
32%
Sampdoria
35%
Expected goals
1.17–1.23
Sudtirol · Sampdoria
Sampdoria win 35% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (15.3%), 0–0 (10.8%), 0–1 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sudtirol score at least twice in 33%; Sampdoria in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Sampdoria goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 15.3 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sudtirol goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 30% | 37% |
| Market reference | 32% | 32% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 32% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sudtirol | 2.94 |
| Draw | 2.96 |
| Sampdoria | 2.70 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sudtirol
| 22 Aug | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
Sampdoria
| 23 Aug | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sudtirol (Home · 4 matches) | Sampdoria (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.25 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Sudtirol's home record; away stats use Sampdoria's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.